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      The axisymmetric model for tropical cyclones used in our forecasts is the “effective absolute angular momentum” (eAAM) model recently developed by us (the detailed information about the model will be provided after the peer-reviewed manuscript is accepted for publication).

         Forecasts are made with the constant values of the four parameters of the eAAM model based on the information of (a) outskirt winds and (b) the location of the minimum sea level pressure derived from the operational forecasts of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) HWRF model. The detailed procedures are outlined below:

Step 1: Calculate eAAM values at grid points in the HWRF forecast domain whose surface winds                 are between 6 and 9 m/s based on their distance from the location of the minimum sea-                 level pressure;

Step 2: Determine the probability density function (PDF) of eAAM values obtained in Step 1;

Step 3: Do probability forecasts of gale-force winds by solving the eAAM model for the radius of                  gale-scale winds (34 knots or 17.5 m/s) with each of eAAM values obtained in Step 1.

Step 4: Do forecasts of radial profiles (out of the radius of maximum surface wind) of surface                     winds by solving the eAAM model for the surface wind as a function of radii with the                         eAAM value at which the PDF obtained in Step 2 peaks.

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